Wanna Bet?

Lately I have been working on various ways to predict scores in football for my fantasy football league. But since I am trying to predict something that doesn't really happen (i.e. fantasy football games) I can always claim that the models that I predict are right. So I decided to give a whirl at predicting some NFL football games versus the spread. So lets see how this goes.

Game    M1  Conf. M2 Conf.
SD@Buf  Buf .36   Buf .73
NO@Car  NO  .25   NO  .66
Min@Chi Min .28   Min .52
Pit@Cin Cin .78   Pit .09
Ten@KC  KC  .20   KC  .75
Bal@Mia Mia .12   Mia .95
SF@NYG  SF  .44   SF  1.00
Dal@StL Dal 1.00  Dal .30
Det@Hou Det .31   Det .32
Ind@GB  Ind .45   GB  .45
NYJ@Oak Oak .47   NYJ .39
Cle@Was Was .74   Cle .09
Sea@TB  TB  .89   Sea .70
Den@NE  NE  .79   NE  .20

M1 and M2 are based on the same model, one just includes blocking on team defense. Conf. is the scaled confidence each pick has for the method.

I wonder if I can pick better than chance doing this.

Update: If I was going to bet $100 multiplied by my confidence, I would have ended up this week with the totals of: -$322 from the M1 system, and -$199 from the M2 system. No so good. I'll give it another try this week.